Analysts Expect Inflation to Close 2013 Unchanged, NBS Set to Release Figures Next Week

The inflation rate is expected to close year 2013 with little change despite rise in price of rice and other commodities in December.
Analysts at the FSDH Securities said, “our model indicates that the price movements in the consumer goods in December would increase the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 152.12 points, representing a month-on-month increase of 0.66 percent. The increase in the CPI in December will produce an inflation rate (year-on-year) of 7.8 percent, representing a basis point decrease from November 2013 of 7.9 percent. Looking ahead, the inflation rate for the month of January 2014 may likely remain unchanged from the December 2013 number.                                                                                                                        
An analysis of the average prices of a basket of consumer goods that FSDH Research monitored across the country in December shows that prices moved in different directions and in different magnitude. 
The average prices of rice increased marginally by about 1.79 percent because of the seasonal effects of the Christmas season. There was an increase of about 7.56 percent in the price of meat, as well as an increase of 4.35 percent and 2.76 percent in Irish potato and fish respectively. However, the average price of onions, palm oil, tomatoes, vegetable oil, sweet potato and beans dropped by about 27.27 percent, 12 percent, 8.82 percent, 7.39 percent, five percent and 4.55 percent respectively, while other prices monitored remained unchanged during the period. The movement in the prices of food items in December resulted in a 0.60 percent increase in our Food and Non-Alcoholic Index to 153.42 points. We also noticed an increase in the prices of Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels, Health and Transportation between November and December.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the inflation figure for the month of December 2013 next week, ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) that will hold between January 21 and January 22, 2013.
 

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