FSDH Predicts 8.5% Inflation for August, Lower One for September

The FSDH has predicted that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) would announce a 8.5 percent inflation rate for August next week, September 17th and even a lower one for the month of September.
 An analysis of the average prices of a basket of consumer goods that FSDH Research monitored across the country in August shows that the prices of some components of the basket increased over July levels. However, there were decreases in the price of tomato, garri, vegetable oil and fish classes, with the average prices of the items dropping by 10.26 percent, 1.67 percent, 4.19 percent and 4.55 percent respectively between July and August. However, there were increases in the average prices of beans, yam, Irish potato, onions and palm oil by 11.11 percent, 10 percent, 9.47 percent, 5.56 percent and 1.98 percent respectively during the period. Meanwhile, the price of rice remained stable between the two months. The general increases in the prices of food items in August resulted in 0.6 percent increase in our Food and Non-Alcoholic Index to 148.99 points. We also noticed an increase in the prices of housing water, electricity, gas and other fuels, health and transportation between July and August. 
 Our model indicates that the price movement in the consumer goods in August would increase the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 148.29 points, representing a month-on-month increase of 0.58 percent. The increase in the CPI in August will produce an inflation rate (year-on-year) of 8.5 percent, representing a 20 basis points decrease from July 2013 inflation rate of 8.7 percent. Looking into September 2013, our forecast points to a drop in the inflation rate below 8.5 percent.               

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