OPEC Crude Oil Exports Fall To 24 Million bpd In February, Sales  From Nigeria Higher

Crude oil exports by e Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) fell marginally in the month of February by 30,000 barrel per day (bpd) to 24 million bpd.
Thomas Reuters’ OPEC Oil Research and Forecasts report for February 2016 indicate that, generally, exports fell by 280,000 during the period.
Exports remain at multi-year highs as the market share battle wages on. Sales increased from Venezuela, Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Ecuador and Qatar, with the African producers adding 340,000 bpd month-on-month (m-o-m), while Latin American members exported 280,000 bpd more m-o-m with Venezuela accounting for 69 per cent of the increase.   
Nadim Najjar, managing director, MENA, Thomson Reuters, said, “Our bottom up analysis shows that the largest Asian buyers (China, India, Japan and South Korea) in the month of February shifted their attention back to Saudi Arabian crude oil, importing less from other OPEC members. 
China in particular was the only country that reduced its share of Saudi crude from 34 per cent in January to 30 per cent in February as emphasis was given to Iraqi crude and crude from other non-Middle East members like Venezuela and non-OPEC crudes such as Russian ESPO.” China has now pledged to get more of its exports from Nigeria.
February exports have increased 1.12 million bpd year-on-year (y-o-y) as Iran increases oil exports following the sanction lift, while other core Middle Eastern producers have pushed output to multi-year highs leaving a very thin spare capacity. Yearly export growth for January stood at 950,000 bpd. We expect OPEC exports to remain strong as refinery maintenance wraps up and road fuel demand increases for the summer driving season.
OPEC exports to Africa increased by 46 per cent to 0.69 million bpd, while exports to Asian buyers fell by 14.3 per cent to 15.43 million bpd. European imports from the organisation fell by 21.4 per cent to 2.2 million bpd and exports to the Americas slowed by 5.85 per cent, to 3.59 million bpd as demand from refineries declines due to ongoing maintenance. 
“Our oil flows tracking indicates that there is 63.35 million bbls with unknown destination, likely still on route for their final destination, with the largest part expected to reach Asian countries in the following days”, said Thomas Reuters.   
Saudi exports softened in February in line with lower crude output. The Kingdom exported 7.8 million bpd, 60,000 bpd lower compared to 7.86 million bpd in January. Flows to Africa and Europe surged by 96 per cent and 159 per cent respectively to 0.24 million bpd and 0.18 million bpd. Exports towards the Americas declined by 31 per cent to 0.85 million bpd, while Asian buying remained very strong at 5.40 million bpd.
Iraq exported 3.35 million bpd in February, down by 132,000 bpd compared to January as the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline remains offline due to sabotage, with repair work still ongoing. Basrah loadings during February rose by 42,000 bpd compared to January.
Iranian exports slowed significantly in February as Asian buyers reduced their intake. The Islamic Republic exported 1.41 million bpd in February, 300,000 lower compared to January’s multi-year high of 1.71 million bpd. Iran has not priced its crude aggressively for Asian buyers, as it did for European customers, allowing Saudi Arabia to maintain its market share dominance.
Export volumes are calculated by the Thomson Reuters Research & Forecast team using a bottom-up methodology that leverages data from the Trade Flows module available on Eikon. An assessment of each tanker’s cargo is made daily by a Thomson Reuters model using a combination of AIS vessel position data, fixtures and port information and reviewed by our analyst teams. If a vessel makes multiple calls at export berths, an assumption is made on the proportion of crude loaded at each berth based on draft and vessel size.
The volume on each vessel is calculated using average parcel size and draft changes when available. Export volumes are frequently adjusted as new more accurate information is received and incorporated into the data. In terms of export timings, crude is determined to have been exported once the vessel has cleared the berth of the export country after loading.  Export figures for Saudi Arabia include an additional 350,000 bpd flow by pipeline from Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq plant to the Bapco refinery in Bahrain. Iraq figures include loadings from the Botas terminal in Ceyhan and are compared with the official estimates from SOMO for exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline. Historical figures can be subject to revisions from previous reports due to improvements in calculating volumes, identification of onward loading locations and changes in vessel destinations.

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